Tim Staermose, CEO of ST Funds Management, explores how you can be defensive with your investments at this uncertain time, yet still invest in fast-growing companies poised for significant stock price gains
Africa’s economic growth could rebound in 2021, provided that governments manage the COVID-19 infection rate well, according to updated forecasts from the African Development Bank (AfDB).
The total wealth held in Africa rose by a modest 14% over the past 10 years (2008-2018) with three of the largest economies on the continent, South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria performing poorly on most economic indicators according to the AfrAsia Africa Wealth Report 2019, released by Mauritius based AfrAsia Bank. The total wealth refers to private wealth held by all the individuals living in each country and includes all assets (property, cash, equities, business interests) less any liabilities.
After a strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, the global economy is losing momentum and expected to slow down from 3.6% in 2018 to 3.3% in 2019 before returning to 3.6% in 2020. This slowdown is attributable to a confluence of factors affecting major economies. The factors weighing down on growth prospects include, the elevated trade tensions between the United States and China, the natural disasters in Japan, the introduction of automobile fuel emissions standards in Germany, the tariff increases enacted in the United States and China earlier this year, the sovereign and financial risks in Italy, the weakening financial market sentiment as well as the deeper-than-envisaged contraction in Turkey.
The “Belt and Road Initiative” is a future-oriented initiative that will bring many benefits to global economic development and people. Chinese Ambassador to Kenya Wu Peng recently said that the cooperation between China and Kenya has deepened political trust, expanded economic and trade cooperation, and promoted the continuous development of the cooperative partnership.
RisCura has launched a delegated investment solution for smaller pension funds in South Africa. David Potgieter, Head of Delegated Investment at RisCura, says that the new Delegated Investment service is aimed at reducing the burden of cost and administration as well as time constraints faced by many trustees.
Investors have had disappointing returns from domestic equities this year after a promising start. South Africa (SA) is now in a recession and the global backdrop is no longer as supportive, so President Ramaphosa will have his work cut out to instil a new sense of confidence to ignite growth. His stimulus package and a revised mining charter are good signs, but scepticism dominates markets. Hope alone is not– implementation is required. Where might be the turning point?
After the political and economic turmoil of recent years, Morocco has emerged as a safe haven for PE investments, attracting capital from abroad through its political stability and favourable business environment. During the 2012-2017 period, 56 transactions were closed, representing 42% of North African transactions (Morocco accounts for 20% of the total population in North Africa), amounting to nearly $900m.
Private Equity (PE) investments in Egypt saw a golden age in the years between 2005 and 2008 when a significant number of landmark PE investments and exits were executed. Afterward, the sector entered into a quiet phase – despite some opportunistic targets in healthcare and education – with investors facing delayed returns on many fronts due to worldwide market instability in 2008-2009 and domestic geopolitical issues between 2011 and 2014.
A giraffe on the African Savannah with the tall buildings of a city on the horizon is often the picture many people think of when imagining Africa. They may not know it but the scene is from the Nairobi National Park, a park on the outskirts of Nairobi, Kenya’s capital city. The Kenya Wildlife services on their website call it “The Worlds Wildlife Capital”. It’s a place I had for many years refused to go to, I was happy to go to Kenya’s coast or its Maasai Mara game reserve but I thought that a game reserve so close to the city was somehow not authentic. Till one year I was persuaded to visit and realised that it’s very authentic, a great place and very convenient being so close to the city. For some of the wildlife such as the lions, sometimes a bit too convenient as they can sometimes get out of the reserve and into the city with disastrous results both for the people living in the suburbs close to the reserve and for the lions.
Most Africa and frontier funds have a very limited part of their portfolio invested in Ghana and for emerging markets funds Ghana is apparently a no-go area. This is understandable as no or very few Ghana-listed stocks meet the minimum liquidity thresholds of these funds. And with hindsight ignoring Ghana has worked well for frontier investors, especially in the 2014-2016 period. In 2017, Ghana has performed very well boosted by optimism regarding the new president and a normalization of interest rates. We believe it can run further as lower interest rates make equities more attractive for local investors. In the long run there could also be a rerating when more international investors buy into Ghana, but it is difficult to predict when that would happen.
President Jacob Zuma has been facing a revolt after replacing a highly respected finance minister with yet another crony which was immediately followed by investment downgrades by foreign ratings agencies. This has widened the chasm within the ruling party but despite this, and public protests, we expect the president to dig his heels in even harder. He will go down kicking and screaming for sure. In essence, there now is a battle for the soul of the ANC.
Over the past few years, the Mozambican real estate market has rapidly evolved with developers tapping into the potential of the new gas discoveries. Not only Maputo’s skyline was rising with new buildings to house luxury hotels, condos and office parks, but also the ‘promised land’ in the northern regions of Nacala, Pemba and Pemba were showing signs of development.
