S&P: SSA will benefit from China's increasing presence
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While Sino-African ties have been a boon in many ways for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the region's vulnerabilities to China have also increased, according to S&P;’s report.
While Sino-African ties have been a boon in many ways for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the region's vulnerabilities to China have also increased, according to S&P’s report.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services takes a look at the new Sino-African relationship in a report titled, "China
In Africa: The Benefits For The Sub-Saharan Region Are Big, But The Potential Risks Are Rising," published on RatingsDirect.
Sino-African bilateral trade has boomed over the past 15 years.
“For the 18 SSA countries we rate, about 23% of their exports went to China in 2013, compared to only 4.6% in 2000 (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development data),” S&P said.
China is Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA’s) biggest trade partner, having surpassed the US in 2009.
China is now the largest export destination for seven of the SSA countries: Angola, Burkina Faso, Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, South Africa, and Zambia.
Most are oil or minerals rich and have benefitted from China's heavy demand for such commodities.
China's FDI into the 18 rated SSA countries has also increased markedly.
Key targeted sectors have included oil, raw materials and other commodities, and infrastructure.
“While the benefits to both are mutual, potential risks have emerged, most recently exacerbated by signs that the Chinese economy is slowing,” the report said.
The Chinese slowdown has already led to lower world prices for some commodities.
For instance, the price of copper, a key export for Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, has decreased to about $6,400 from its 2011 peak of above $10,000 per tonne, primarily due to weaker Chinese demand.
China's slowdown could also have repercussions via the financing channel.
Average debt to GDP across the 18 rated SSA sovereigns has risen over the last five years, partly due to newly available Chinese financing.
“The end of the commodity boom,followed by weaker GDP growth, fiscal revenues, and exports, and depreciating SSA currencies, could reduce SSA revenues needed for servicing Chinese loans.”
Some borrowers could find redemption at maturity more challenging.
“Despite the risks and potential volatilities, however, we believe the Sino-African relationship will deepen in the medium term as China enters a new phase of growth driven more by outbound investment, especially in infrastructure, than by exports,” said S&P.